Latest statistics on England mortality data suggest systematic mis-categorisation of vaccine status and uncertain effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccination.
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9: Summary and Conclusions
The accuracy of any data purporting to show vaccine effectiveness or safety against a disease is critically dependent on the accurate measurement of: people classified as having the disease; vaccination status; death reporting; and the population of vaccinated and unvaccinated (the so called ‘denominators’).
If there are errors in any of these, claims of effectiveness or safety cannot be considered reliable.
The risk/benefit of Covid vaccines is best – and most simply - measured by all-cause mortality of vaccinated against unvaccinated, since it avoids the thorny issue of what constitutes a Covid ‘case/infection’. In principle, the data in the ONS vaccine mortality surveillance reports should provide us
with the necessary information to monitor this crucial comparison over time.
However, until the most recent report , no age categorized data were provided, meaning that any comparisons were confounded by age (older people are both disproportionately more vaccinated than younger people and
disproportionately more likely to die).
The latest ONS report does provide some relevant age categorised data. Specifically, it includes separate data for age groups 60-69, 70-79 and 80+, but there is only a single group of data for the age group 10-59.
At first glance the data suggest that, in each of the older age groups, all-cause mortality is lower in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. In the 10-59 age group all-cause mortality is higher among the vaccinated, but this group is likely confounded by age since it is far too wide for the data provided to be
sufficient to draw any firm conclusions.
However, despite this apparent evidence to support vaccine effectiveness - at least for the older age groups - on closer inspection of this data, this conclusion is cast into doubt. That is because we have shown a range of fundamental inconsistencies and flaws in the data.
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