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Lancet: Absolute Risk Reduction under 1.5% for all vaccines

The absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a vaccine, considers the whole population.

The figures are:

1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford

1·2% for the Moderna–NIH

1·2% for the J&J

0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.

This is the figure we should be paying attention to, but it's not nearly so impressive as the risk reduction (RR) figures quoted by the manufacturers.

95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech

94% for the Moderna–NIH

67% for the Johnson & Johnson

67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines

From the article:

ARR is also used to derive an estimate of vaccine effectiveness, which is the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one more case of COVID-19 as 1/ARR.

NNVs bring a different perspective: 81 for the Moderna–NIH, 78 for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 108 for the Gamaleya, 84 for the J&J, and 119 for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.

The explanation lies in the combination of vaccine efficacy and different background risks of COVID-19 across studies: 0·9% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 1% for the Gamaleya, 1·4% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·8% for the J&J, and 1·9% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines.

Many are falsely led by the media and government to believe that submitting themselves to an experimental vaccine means they cannot catch the virus nor can they pass it onto someone else. The scientific reality is somewhat different.


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