Germans Mortality Shows Unexplained and Significant Rise

WIESBADEN – According to extrapolated figures of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), 92,295 people died in Germany in November 2021. This is 20% above the median of the years 2017 to 2020 for that month (+15,612 cases).

This is shown by an ad hoc evaluation of provisional death figures. Applying an extrapolation method to incomplete reports allows first death figures for Germany to be released after roughly one week.

In Week 48 (29 November to 5 December) the figures exceeded the median of previous years by 28%.

COVID-19 deaths reported can only partly explain the increase

A comparison of total deaths with the number of COVID-19 deaths by death date reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) is currently possible up to and including Week 46 of 2021 (15 to 21 November).

In that week, total death figures were by 23%, or 4,148 cases, above the median of the preceding four years. So far, 1,656 COVID-19 deaths with date of death in that week have been reported to the RKI. Late reporting is to be expected.

According to these figures, COVID-19 deaths reported to the RKI can only partly explain the increase. As regards the part of the increase that cannot be explained by the figures, several causes are possible. COVID-19 deaths not identified or the displacement of deaths within the year caused by the fact that the usual flu wave did not occur at the beginning of the year may play a role here (mortality displacement).

It is also possible that the consequences of postponing operations and preventive examinations become visible here. It is however currently not possible to quantify the contribution of individual effects.

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